by Calculated Risk on 1/21/2009 01:49:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bargain hunting dominates Bay Area home sales in December

Bargain hunting dominated the Bay Area housing market last month as the purchase of foreclosure properties accounted for more than half of all resales for the first time. Sales patterns also reflected continued problems for buyers looking to finance purchases in the upper half of the market's price range, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 6,889 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine- county region last month. That was up 19.7 percent from 5,756 in November, and up 36.0 percent from 5,065 for December 2007, according to MDA DataQuick.
...
The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $330,000 in December. That was down 5.7 percent from $350,000 for the month before, and down 43.8 percent from $587,500 for December 2007. That was the lowest it has been since March 2000 when the median was $320,500, and 50.4% below the $665,000 peak of June/July 2007.

"It would be wrong to say that Bay Area home values are half of what they were a year-and-a-half ago. We're figuring that maybe half of the decline in median is a market mix issue, and the rest a drop in value. But we're in the middle of this, and we won't be able to quantify it until it's behind us. What is remarkable, is that so much Bay Area activity is still on hold, waiting the turbulence out. We don't know how long that can last," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
...
Homes that were foreclosed on accounted for 50.0 percent of December's resale activity, up from 46.8 percent in November, and up from 14.0 percent for December a year ago. Foreclosure resales ranged from 12.4 percent in San Francisco last month to 67.7 percent in Solano County.
emphasis added

Note that the median price has been partially driven down by the change in mix. Also note the increase in foreclosures in the high priced areas.

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2008 02:09:00 PM

NOTE from CR: be careful with median prices. This doesn't mean prices have fallen to an eight year low - this means that a combination of price declines and a significant change in mix (to lower priced homes) has happened. The Case-Shiller repeat sales index is a better measure of actual price declines.

From DataQuick: Bay Area median home price sinks to 8-year low; sales up over '07 again

Bay Area home sales decelerated in November but beat the year-ago mark for the third consecutive month. The allure of discounted foreclosures continued to drive sales in affordable inland markets, which helped push the median sale price down to its lowest point since former President Bill Clinton was in the White House.

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos combined in the nine-county Bay Area fell to $350,000 last month. That was down 6.7 percent from $375,000 in October and down a record 44.4 percent from $629,000 in November 2007, according to MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate information service.

The November median sale price - the point where half of the homes sold for more and half for less - stood at its lowest since it was $350,000 in September 2000. It was 47.4 percent below the peak median of $665,000 reached last year in June, July and August.
...
A total of 5,756 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the region last month. That was down 24.4 percent from 7,613 sales in October but up 12.3 percent from 5,127 sales in November 2007.

Last month's tally was still the second-lowest for a November since at least 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin.
...
Last month 47.6 percent of all homes that resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, up from 44.0 percent in October and 10.1 percent a year ago.
...
In November, use of FHA, government-insured mortgages allowing a down payment of as little as 3 percent rose to 20.6 percent of Bay Area home purchase loans. That's a record in DataQuick's statistics and up from less than 1.0 percent a year ago. At the same time, use of larger mortgages known as "jumbo loans," common in higher-cost coastal neighborhoods, continued to fall. Before the credit crunch hit in August 2007, 62 percent of Bay Area sales were financed with jumbos, then defined as over $417,000. Last month just 23.0 percent of purchase loans were over $417,000.

This fits with the earlier post today about interest rates. On loans up to $417K, 30 year fixed rates are below 5%, but on loans above $417K rates are still above 7%.

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2008 03:59:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales ease but still beat '07; median falls below $300K

Southern California home sales outpaced last year for the fifth consecutive month in November, when 55 percent of buyers in the resale market chose repossessed homes. The abundance of discounted foreclosures helped push the median sale price down a record 35 percent from a year ago, a real estate information service reported.

The median is dropping fast because the mix has changed to lower priced homes. This mix change is because of all the foreclosures at the low end, and also because jumbo loans are very expensive - limiting home buying at the mid and high end in SoCal. As I've noted before, the Case-Shiller repeat sales index is a better measure of price movement because it isn't distorted by changes in the mix.

"Bargains and bargain hunters have kept this market alive through some of the bleakest financial news in memory. There's this renewed sense that you can score a 'deal' - something that had been missing for many years. Last month's Southland sales weren't great, given they were the second-lowest for any November in 16 years. But they could have been a lot worse," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

"Many first-time homebuyers are, understandably, cheering as foreclosures dominate sales, tugging down prices and raising affordability," he continued. "For home sellers and the industry, though, one concern over foreclosures representing half of all sales is that those transactions simply repay lenders. They don't trigger a move-up purchase."

That is a key point - the chain is broken - there is no move-up buyer.

by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2008 01:13:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area median price tumbles to $375K; sales reach high for '08

Bay Area homes sold at their fastest pace in 17 months in October as buyers favored more affordable inland areas where depreciation and foreclosures have hit hardest. As a result, the median sale price continued its steep, months-long decline, falling a record 40.6 percent, or $256,000, from a year ago, a real estate information service reported.
...
Last month's sales were the highest for any month since June 2007, when 7,964 homes sold. But sales were still the second-lowest for any October since 1995 and were 14.2 percent below the average number sold during October since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin.
...
Last month 44.8 percent of all existing homes sold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, up from 41.9 percent in September and 8.2 percent a year ago.

Be careful with the median price - the mix has shifted to more homes in lower priced neighborhoods with significant foreclosure resale activity - and that reduces the median price. The Case-Shiller index is a better measure of house price declines.

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2008 01:55:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland October home sales climb to highest level of the year

Southern California home sales rose unseasonably last month from September as buyers shook off gloomy financial news and took advantage of often-steep discounts. The median sale price fell to $300,000 - a 67-month low - as foreclosures once again accounted for half of all resales ...

Fueled by lower prices, Southland sales have risen on a year-over-year basis for four consecutive months, breaking a 33-month streak of annual declines.
...
"You could easily imagine a meaningful decline in sales last month, given the seasonal norm and the dire financial news that potential buyers had to ponder in September. But we have yet to see any big, sudden drop in the number of transactions closing escrow. It tells us there were a lot of very serious buyers in the market during late summer and early fall - buyers who consider housing a relatively good buy or investment," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

Last month's record annual sales increase reflects two things: Very weak sales a year ago on the heels of the August credit crunch and earlier subprime meltdown, and this year's big sales gains in inland markets where prices have fallen 30 percent or more. Depreciation in such areas has triggered record foreclosures, which tend to sell at a discount, attracting bargain hunters.

Fifty-one percent of existing homes that closed escrow in October were foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months. That's up from a revised 50.0 percent in September and 16.0 percent in October 2007.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2008 05:10:00 PM

DataQuick reports that the new California law that took effect in early September significantly reduced the number of NODs in September. The new law requires lenders to make contact with borrowers at least 30 days before filing a Notice of Default, and the reduction in NODs is probably temporary. Note: according to RealtyTrac, California accounts for about one-third of the nation’s foreclosure activity.

Click on map for larger image.

This graphs shows the NODs by year in California according to DataQuick. NODs for 2008 were estimated with Q4 at the same pace as Q3.

In the early to mid-'90s there was a huge surge in foreclosure activity in California (California had a significant housing correction and recession in the early '90s). That mid-'90s spike in NODs looks almost insignificant now!

Here is the DataQuick report: California mortgage default filings drop amid procedural change

The number of mortgage default notices filed against California homeowners fell last quarter for the first time in three years as a change in the state's formal foreclosure process took effect. If that procedural change hadn't kicked in during early September, indications are that third-quarter default filings would have been about the same as the record number filed in this year's second quarter ...

Mortgage servicers recorded 94,240 "notices of default" on homes during the July-through-September period. That was down 22.5 percent from a revised record of 121,673 in this year's second quarter, and up 29.9 percent from 72,571 in third-quarter 2007, according to MDA DataQuick. The San Diego-based firm's default statistics begin in 1992.

In September the number dropped to 14,995 filings as a new state law took effect early that month. It requires that in many instances lenders must try to contact homeowners delinquent on their mortgage payments, then wait 30 days before filing a default notice.
...
During the first week of September, before the law took effect, roughly 2,000 default notices were filed each business day in California. In the week after the law kicked in, average daily filings plunged to less than 100, then went back up to around 500 daily the final week of September.

"It's unclear just how much foreclosure activity will be time-shifted into future months. We'll know more when we have fourth-quarter numbers. What's interesting is that the surge in activity certainly did level off during the second and third quarters. A lot of the market's distress is working its way through the system and the spectacular jumps in activity may be behind us. Or it may be that those processing the default paperwork are just maxed out," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2008 03:17:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales up 45% over '07; median price falls to $400K

Bay Area home sales soared last month above the record-low levels of a year ago, marking the largest gain in over six years. The median sale price did the opposite, diving to $400,000 - 40 percent below its summer 2007 peak - as more sales shifted to lower-cost inland markets laden with foreclosures.
...
Although sales rose in some coastal communities in September, it was the region's less expensive inland markets that pushed sales up so sharply.
...
DataQuick's September sales reflect closed escrows, meaning buyers made their purchase decisions in mid-to-late summer, before the worst of the economic news hit in recent weeks. Statistics over the next month will begin to show how housing demand has fared this fall.
...
[N]early 42 percent of all existing homes sold across the Bay Area last month had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, up from 36.1 percent in August and 6.9 percent a year ago. Foreclosures tend to sell at a discount and are concentrated in relatively affordable neighborhoods.
...
Foreclosure activity is at or near record levels ...

The inland areas have seen the most foreclosure activity and largest price declines. The increase in sales (prior to the recent wave of the credit crisis) suggests prices are closer to the eventual bottom in the inland areas than for the higher priced areas.

We have to be careful with median prices because so much of the activity is foreclosure resales in lower prices areas, and this distorts the mix of houses being sold and lowers the median price.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2008 03:41:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales up, prices down; foreclosures now half the market (hat tip Peter Viles at L.A. Land)

Southern California home sales shot up by an unprecedented 65 percent last month from the dismal, record lows of a year ago, when a credit crunch slammed the brakes on home financing. September sales also posted a rare gain over August as price cuts lured more buyers. Foreclosure resales rose to half of all transactions.

A total of 20,497 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the six-county Southland in September, up 5.8 percent from 19,366 in August and up 64.6 percent from 12,455 in September 2007, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service.

Last month's sales were the highest for any month since December 2006 and the year-over-year gain was the highest for any month in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. However, last month's sales were still the second-lowest for any September since 1996 and were 17 percent below the 20-year sales average for that month.
...
"The pitifully low September 2007 sales numbers weren't tough to beat. More impressive was that this September's sales volume bucked the seasonal norm and rose above August. Steep price declines, especially inland, have improved housing affordability quite a bit and may keep sales levels well above the record lows we saw late last year and early this year. It will depend on the severity of this economic downturn," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

"You have to view last month's sales in the proper context," he cautioned. "They represent escrow closings, which reflect purchase decisions made in mid-to-late summer. That was before the dramatic worsening of the nation's economic crisis in recent weeks. Over the next few weeks our sales data will begin to show how the meltdown in financial markets this fall has impacted housing demand."
...
Fifty percent of all existing homes that closed escrow in September had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior year. That's up from 45.5 percent in August and 12.6 percent in September last year.

At the county level, such foreclosure resales ranged from 36.8 percent of September resales in Orange County to 68.9 percent in Riverside County. In Los Angeles County foreclosure resales were 39.1 percent of all resales; in San Diego 47.3 percent; San Bernardino 63.1 percent and in Ventura County 44.0 percent.
...
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is at or near record levels ...

DataQuick shows median house prices have fallen significantly in SoCal, but these median prices are distorted by the mix of houses sold.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2008 04:25:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales climb above last year; median price falls hard

Bay Area home sales eked out their first year-over- year gain since early 2005 last month as buyers responded to price cuts and snapped up more inland foreclosures. The median sales price dove to a 53- month low, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 7,586 new and resale houses and condos sold across the nine- county Bay Area in July. That was up 5.7 percent from 7,178 in June and up 2.2 percent from 7,423 in July 2007, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

July sales were the highest for any month since June 2007 and marked the first annual sales gain for any month since January 2005. However, last month's sales still fell 22 percent short of the average July sales total since 1988, when MDA DataQuick's statistics begin, and were the second- lowest for a July since 1995.

Sales of distressed properties played a major role in most areas logging annual sales gains last month.

Foreclosure resales -- homes sold in July that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months -- made up 33 percent of all resales. That was up from 29.9 percent in June and 4.2 percent in July 2007. Foreclosure resales ranged from 4.6 percent of the resale market in San Francisco to 65.9 percent in Solano County.
...
"So much of today's market is driven by distress. Unless interpreted in that context, the stats give a rather distorted view of the overall market. We know one-third of the Bay Area's resales in July were homes fresh off foreclosure. Who knows how many more involved a desperate seller and a lender who accepted a short sale," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
...
[T]he Bay Area's median sales price down to $470,000 in July. That was 3.1 percent lower than $485,000 in June this year and 29.3 percent lower than the peak $665,000 median reached in July and June of 2007.

The median has not been lower than July's since March 2005, when it was $469,500.
emphasis added

The median price is being distorted by the mix of homes being sold. Since most of the foreclosures have been at the low end, and the foreclosure resale market makes up 33% of all sales, the median price has fallen sharply. A better measure of price is a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2008 03:16:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales post annual gain -- prices drop again

The number of Southern California homes sold last month edged up to its highest level in more than a year as bargain hunters swept up foreclosure properties in affordable neighborhoods, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 20,329 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 16.7 percent from 17,424 the previous month and up 13.8 percent from 17,867 for July a year ago, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

Last month's sales count was the highest since 21,856 homes were sold in March 2007, though it still fell 23 percent short of the average July sales total since 1988, when MDA DataQuick's statistics begin. From last September through June, sales for each month were at an all-time low for that particular calendar month, with the exception of April which was the next lowest. Last month's sales total was the first since September 2005 to rise above the year-ago level.

"What we're looking at is a fire sale of properties in newer affordable neighborhoods that were bought or refinanced near the price peak with lousy mortgages. What we're still not seeing is this level of distress spreading to more expensive or established neighborhoods," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
...
Foreclosure resales continue to be a dominant factor in today's Southern California market, accounting for 43.6 percent of all resales. That was up from a revised 41.8 percent in June, and up from 7.9 percent in July 2007. Foreclosure resales -- where a foreclosure had occurred at some point in the prior 12 months -- ranged from 22.2 percent of all resales in Orange County last month to 64.4 percent in Riverside County.
...
Foreclosure activity is at record levels ...
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2008 02:47:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the number of Notice of Defaults (NODs) filed in California by year since 1992. The 2008 estimate is twice the first half rate.

From DataQuick: Another Increase in California Foreclosure Activity

Lenders started foreclosure proceedings on a record number of California homeowners last quarter, the result of declining home values and the rampant spoilage of a batch of especially risky home loans made in late 2005 and 2006, a real estate information service reported.

Mortgage servicers recorded 121,341 "notices of default" during the April-through-June period. That was up 6.6 percent from a revised 113,809 for this year's first quarter, and up 124.9 percent from 53,943 in second-quarter 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Last quarter's number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1992.
...
"The small increase in defaults from the first to the second quarter may indicate that we're nearing a plateau. We won't know until the end of the year, but it may be that some lenders are starting to prioritize workouts with homeowners instead of grinding things through the foreclosure process. Of course, they may just be swamped and can't handle processing any more paperwork," said [John Walsh, DataQuick president].
...
Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 22 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes 'work- outs' difficult.
...
Foreclosure resales have emerged as a significant market factor, accounting for 40.0 percent of all California resale activity last quarter. A year ago it was 5.4 percent.

There are several key points:

This is a new record for NODs.

A very large percentage of NODs go through foreclosure. Only 22% "emerge from the foreclosure process". That is a historic low.

40% of all sales activity in California are foreclosure resales.

Instead of filing NODs, some lenders appear to be delaying while trying for a workout. "[I]t may be that some lenders are starting to prioritize workouts with homeowners instead of grinding things through the foreclosure process. Of course, they may just be swamped and can't handle processing any more paperwork." I've heard both reasons from other sources.

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2008 02:47:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area median price dives below $500K; sales near record low

The median price paid for a Bay Area home plunged to $485,000 in June, marking the first time in more than four years that it was below the half-million mark, DataQuick Information Systems reported.

The price barometer fell an unprecedented 27 percent from its record level a year ago as more sellers settled for less, lenders unloaded more aggressively-priced foreclosures and more sales activity shifted to less- expensive areas, mainly inland. Credit remained tightest for potential high- end buyers on the coast, where sales were generally anemic and prices showed signs of increased erosion, the real estate information service reported.

June's $485,000 median was 6.2 percent below May's $517,000 and 27.1 percent lower than the peak $665,000 median reached in June and July of 2007. Last month's median was the lowest since it was $469,500 in March 2004. The median first surpassed $500,000 in May 2004.

The median has fallen on a year-over-year basis for seven consecutive months, the result of both widespread depreciation, most pronounced inland, and a shift of sales towards lower-priced markets.
...
A total of 7,178 new and resale houses and condos sold across the nine- county Bay Area in June. That was up 15.5 percent from 6,216 in May but down 9.9 percent from 7,964 for June 2007.

Although last month's sales were the highest since last August, it was still the second-lowest June in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The last time June sales were lower was in 1993, when 7,118 homes sold.
...
Last month foreclosure resales made up 28.7 percent of all Bay Area resales, up from 27.6 percent in May and 3.5 percent a year ago. They ranged from as little as 3 percent of resales in San Francisco to as much as 57.7 percent in Solano County.
...
Foreclosure activity is at record levels ...

Median prices are distorted by the mix - so I prefer the Case-Shiller repeat sales index for prices. Just like in SoCal, foreclosure resales are dominating the market in the lower priced areas - and foreclosures are increasing almost everywhere (although only 3% of San Francisco sales).

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2008 02:32:00 PM

Note that foreclosure resales were 41.1% of all resales in June!

From DataQuick: Southland home sales drag along bottom

Home sales in Southern California continued at their slowest pace in more than two decades last month ... A total of 17,424 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 3.0 percent from 16,917 the previous month and down 13.6 percent from 20,166 for June a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

While last month's sales were the highest in ten months, it was still the slowest June in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The June average is 28,488 sales, the peak was reached in 2005 when 40,156 homes sold.
...
The median price paid for a Southland home was $355,000 last month, down 4.1 percent from $370,000 in May and down 29.3 percent from $502,000 for June 2007. The peak of $505,000 was reached in March, April, May and July of last year.

The median has fallen because of depreciation, especially in inland markets, and because of the steep dropoff in home financing in the so-called jumbo category, which until recently was defined as loans above $417,000.
...
Foreclosure resales continue to be a dominant factor in today's Southern California market accounting for 41.1 percent of all resales. That was up from 39.2 percent in May, and up from 7.3 percent in June a year ago. Foreclosure resales ranged from 18.9 percent in Orange County last month to 62.3 percent in Riverside County.
...
Foreclosure activity is at record levels ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2008 01:36:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales return to record low in May

After a record burst of activity between March and April, Bay Area home sales eased a bit last month to the slowest pace for a May in over 20 years. Sales were weakest in many higher-end coastal markets but rose well above year-ago levels in some inland areas where foreclosures and deep discounts lured bargain hunters.

A total of 6,216 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area in May. That was down 1.5 percent from 6,310 in March, and down 23.1 percent from 8,080 in May 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.

Last month was the slowest May in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988.
...
In May, post-foreclosure homes continued to play a big role in the market. Across the nine-county region, 25.6 percent of the homes that resold had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, down from 26 percent in April but up from 3.3 percent a year ago.
...
The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $517,000 last month, down 0.2 percent from $518,000 in April, and down a record 21.7 percent from $660,000 in May last year. May's median was 22.3 percent lower than the peak $665,000 median in June and July last year. The last time the median was lower than last month's $517,000 was back in September 2004, when it was $510,000.
...
Foreclosure activity is at record levels ...

The pattern continues: the low end areas are seeing some pickup in sales, as foreclosures dominate. Sales are sluggish (and prices still sticky) in high end areas.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2008 01:46:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales back to record low; median price slips again

Bargain shoppers helped push Southern California home sales higher in May compared with April - a normal, seasonal lift - but it was still the slowest May in more than 20 years. The median price paid fell a record 27 percent from a year ago, the result of sluggish high-end sales, more sellers dropping their asking prices and lenders selling off more of their aggressively priced, repossessed homes.
...
Sales of post-foreclosure homes continue to dominate many inland markets. Of all the Southland homes that resold in May, 37.4 percent had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, compared with a revised 36.2 percent in April and 5.5 percent one year ago. Across the six-county area, these "foreclosure resales" ranged from 25.6 percent of resale activity in Orange County to 56.6 percent in Riverside County.
...
Foreclosure activity is at record levels ...

This is an REO market. Most of the sales activity is at the low end, and even the higher end areas are seeing substantial REO sales activity.

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2008 02:11:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales edge up in April

Bay Area home sales edged up from a seven-month run of record lows last month, indicating that mortgage availability is improving and that an increasing number of fence sitters have decided they like today's lower prices, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 6,310 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area in April. That was up 28.8 percent from 4,898 in March, and down 15.3 percent from 7,447 for April 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.

The month-to-month jump was the strongest for any March/April in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Starting last September and through March, each calendar month was the slowest on record. Last month was the slowest April since 1995 when 5,636 homes were sold.

"The big issue here is that mortgages are becoming obtainable, which will reduce the pile of stacked up pending escrows. It's unclear if the financing is because of policy changes or because mortgage investors are getting more interested in securities. Probably both," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $518,000 last month, down 3.4 percent from $536,000 in March, and down 21.4 percent from $659,000 in April last year. Last month's median was 22.1 percent lower than the peak median of $665,000 reached in June and July last year.
...
Foreclosure property resales accounted for 25.7 percent of last month's Bay Area market. The percentage is higher in outlying areas that absorbed spillover activity during the frenzy. While foreclosure properties were 5.9 percent of San Francisco's resale market and 8.9 percent of Marin's resale market last month, they were 44.7 percent in Contra Costa and 54.2 percent in Solano.
...
Foreclosure activity is at record levels ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2008 01:19:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales highest in eight months

Southern California home sales surged last month to the highest level since August as bargain shoppers took advantage of price slashing. Although some higher-end costal markets also posted gains, the swell in transactions mainly reflects more sales of homes under $500,000 in inland areas where depreciation and foreclosures have been greatest, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 15,615 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in April. That was up 21.9 percent from 12,808 the previous month but down 19 percent from 19,269 in April last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Sales from March to April have risen on average 1.2 percent since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin. Although last month's sales total was the highest for any month since August 2007, when 17,755 homes sold, it was still the weakest April since April 1995, when 15,303 homes sold, and the second-lowest April on record. Last month was 38 percent below of the April average of 25,311 sales.

Post-foreclosure homes continued to play a major role in the Southland market. Of all the homes that resold in April, 37.5 percent had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, compared with a revised 35.8 percent in March and 4.6 percent a year ago. Across the six-county area, "foreclosure resales" ranged from 26.9 percent of resale activity in Orange County to 52.7 percent in Riverside County.

Last month's upswing in sales was most pronounced for homes priced under $500,000, which accounted for two-thirds of the Southland's sales gain over March. Riverside County, the epicenter of Southland foreclosure activity and price declines, posted the region's only year-over-year sales increase -– that county's first in two years.
...
"Quite a few more buyers stepped off the sidelines last month to snap up homes at substantial discounts relative to the market's short-lived peak," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president. "It's no surprise, given the magnitude of the price declines in inland areas and the fact sales have been so amazingly low for so long. We continue to look for evidence of a sales bounce in the mid-priced and higher-end markets along the coast. If the higher conforming loan limits are making a difference in those areas, it's certainly not a large one, at least not as of the end of April."

The median price paid for a Southland home was $385,000 last month, unchanged from March but down 23.8 percent from the peak median of $505,000 in April 2007.
...
Foreclosure activity is at record levels ...
emphasis added

This is interesting. The pickup in sales is mostly in the areas with steep price declines and severe foreclosure activity (like the Inland Empire).

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2008 12:41:00 PM

Update: press release added at bottom.

From DataQuick: The number of mortgage default notices (NODs) filed against California homeowners in Q1 2008 increased by 39% over Q4 2007, to the highest level on record.

This graph shows the annual NODs filed in California since 1992. For Q1 2008, a record 113,676 NODs were filed in California, compared to 254,824 total NODs in 2007. This is more than double the 46,670 NODs filed in Q1 2007.

Click on graph for larger image.

For 2008, the number of NODs was estimated at 4 times the Q1 rate. Based on recent experience - with NODs increasing every quarter for the last 3 years - this is probably conservative.

As bad as 2007 was, 2008 will be much much worse.

Not all NODs go to foreclosure, but the percentage has been increasing (well over 50% now).

From DataQuick: Another Jump in California Foreclosure Activity

Lending institutions sent homeowners 113,676 default notices during the January-to-March period. That was up by 39.4 percent from 81,550 the previous quarter, and up 143.1 percent from 46,760 for first-quarter 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Last quarter's number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1992.

"The main factor behind this foreclosure surge remains the decline in home values. Additionally, a lot of the 'loans-gone-wild' activity happened in late 2005 and 2006 and that's working its way through the system. The big 'if' right now is whether or not the economy is in recession. If it is, the foreclosure problem could spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick's president.

Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between August 2005 and October 2006. The median age was 23 months, up from 16 months a year earlier.
...
Last quarter's default numbers were a record in almost all of the state's 58 counties. The notable exception being Los Angeles County, which was particularly hard hit by the recession of the early 1990s. During last quarter, the county's 20,339 defaults represented 94.8 percent of its peak quarter back in Q1 of 1996, which saw 21,444 defaults.
...
Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 32 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes 'work-outs' difficult.
emphasis added

Wow, now 2/3 of NODs are going to foreclosure!

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2008 03:38:00 PM

From DataQuick Bay Area home sales remain at two-decade low

For the seventh month in a row, Bay Area home sales were at their lowest level in more than two decades as potential buyers and sellers continued to wait out market turbulence, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 4,898 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area in March. That was up 22.8 percent from 3,989 in February, and down 41.1 percent from 8,317 for March 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.

Last month was the slowest March in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Record monthly lows have been logged in since September. The sales increase between February and March this year was the lowest on record. Normally sales increase by 40 percent.

On prices:

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $536,000 last month, down 2.2 percent from $548,000 in February, and down 16.1 percent from $639,000 in March last year. Last month's median was 19.4 percent lower than the peak median of $665,000 reached last June and July.

Last month's median price would have been closer to $597,000 if the availability of jumbo home loans had remained stable. A year ago jumbo loans, mortgages above $417,000, accounted for 62.2 percent of all Bay Area home loans. Last month they were 29.8 percent.

This is why the Case-Shiller repeat home method is better than the median price method for calculating home price changes. Using the median price method, it appeared prices were holding up pretty well at the beginning of the housing bust simply because the mix changed - fewer low end homes were sold. Now it's the high end being hit. And finally ...

Foreclosure activity is at record levels ...

The California foreclosure activity data should be released soon for Q1. It will probably be stunning.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2008 02:02:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales log tepid gain; record price drop

The onset of spring did little to thaw Southern California's semi-frozen housing market: The seasonal boost in sales between February and March was less than half its normal level and a record low. The weak start to the home buying season also saw another record dive in the median sales price, the result of depreciation, slow sales for higher-priced abodes and growing sales for discounted homes fresh out of foreclosure.

A total of 12,808 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in March. That was up 18.8 percent from 10,777 the previous month but down 41.4 percent from 21,856 in March 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Over the past 20 years Southland sales have risen by an average of 38 percent between February and March. Last month's 18.1 percent increase from February was the lowest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988.

March was the seventh consecutive month in which sales have fallen to the lowest level on record for that particular month. On average, March sales have been about twice as high - 25,407 - as last month.

Foreclosure resales - houses sold after being foreclosed on - continue to dominate many inland neighborhoods. More than one out of three Southland homes that resold last month, nearly 38 percent, had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior year. This time last year such sales were only 8 percent of the market. At the county level, foreclosure resales ranged from 28.8 percent in Los Angeles County to 56.4 percent in Riverside County.
...
The median price paid for a Southland home was $385,000 last month, the lowest since $380,000 in April 2004. Last month's median was down 5.6 percent from February's $408,000, and down a record 23.8 percent from $505,000 in February 2007. That peak median of $505,000 was reached several times last spring and summer.
...
Foreclosure activity is at record levels ...
emphasis added

Grim.