by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 06:23:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 10, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 7 and DOW futures are up 54 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $63.53 per barrel and Brent at $66.34 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $78, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are down about 18% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.42 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.33 year-over-year.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 08:42:00 AM

The Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 12th. 

The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.8% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.0% YoY.

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect a 0.33% increase in July core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.08% (vs. +3.0% consensus). We expect a 0.27% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), reflecting higher food prices (+0.3%) but lower energy prices (-0.6%). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.31% increase in core PCE in July.
...
Over the next few months, we expect tariffs to continue to boost monthly inflation and forecast monthly core CPI inflation between 0.3-0.4%. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further this year, reflecting shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labor markets.

From BofA:

We forecast headline CPI rose by 0.24% m/m in July, and core CPI increased by 0.31% m/m. If correct, core CPI would increase to 3.1% y/y from 2.9%. Tariffs likely drove an acceleration in goods price hikes despite further declines in vehicle prices. Meanwhile, a rise in airfares should contribute to an uptick in core services ex housing inflation.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in both headline and core inflation since January 2024.

The circled area is the change for last July.   CPI was up 0.14% in July 2024, and core CPI was up 0.19%.  So, anything above those readings for July will push up year-over-year inflation.  

Starting this month, the tariff related inflation is expected to kick in.

by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease

• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2026?

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are July CPI and Retail Sales.

For manufacturing, the August NY Fed survey, and the July Industrial Production report will be released.

----- Monday, August 11th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, August 12th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.8% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.0% YoY.

----- Wednesday, August 13th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, August 14th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 228 thousand from 226 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

----- Friday, August 15th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.5% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline)

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 5.5.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.6%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August)

by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 04:06:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Rail volumes are holding up, indicating goods movement remains resilient despite the headwinds. Looking ahead, though, sustained pressure on labor markets and consumer demand could eventually weigh on freight activity.
emphasis added

U.S. rail intermodal shipments rebounded in July, rising 2.4% over last year and reversing a 2.9% decline in June (intermodal’s first year-over-year decline in 22 months). In July 2025, intermodal originations averaged 270,175 units per week, the second most ever for July (behind July 2018).

Meanwhile, U.S. total carloads rose 4.6% in July 2025 over July 2024, their fifth straight increase. In July, 15 of the 20 carload categories tracked by the AAR saw gains, the most since December 2023. Total carloads averaged 224,568 per week in July 2025, the most for July since 2019. In 2025 through July, total carloads were up 2.8%, or nearly 186,000 carloads, over last year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 12:37:00 PM

This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

On August 8, 2025, LBR was at $652.50 per 1,000 board feet, up 24% from a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.

The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  

by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 11:41:00 AM

From BofA:

Next week, we will initiate our 3Q GDP tracker ... [August 8th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

[W]e boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at -0.1%. [August 7th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 7, unchanged from August 5 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.76 percentage points to 0.82 percentage points. [August 7th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 08:15:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, 6.82% in May and 6.82% in June (somewhat higher than for closed sales in June).

In July, sales in these early reporting markets were up 0.9% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were up 0.9% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data.
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 05:46:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Aug. 2

• Active inventory climbed 22.8% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 22.8% year over year, slightly lower than the previous week for the seventh consecutive week. Nevertheless, last week was the 91st consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were roughly 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 13th week in a row over the million-listing threshold and the highest inventory level since late 2019. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.5% year over year

New listings rose just 1.5% last week compared with the same period last year. This marks another slowdown compared with the previous week, in which new listings grew by 5% year over year. Homeowners are less eager to get into the market as inventory continues to build and buyers keep to the sidelines.

• The median list price grew 0.8% year over year

The median list price grew slightly (0.8%) compared with the same week in 2024. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.4% year over year, continuing its nearly two-year growth streak. However, with price-per-square-foot growth slightly lagging overall price growth, it seems that the trend toward more small, affordable homes for sale is stabilizing.

With inventory climbing, and sales depressed, months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 putting downward pressure on house prices in an increasing number of areas.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 10:29:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 2 August. ...

27 July through 2 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 69.5% (-0.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.00 (+0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.90 (+0.4%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will likely start to decrease seasonally.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.