by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 04:06:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Rail volumes are holding up, indicating goods movement remains resilient despite the headwinds. Looking ahead, though, sustained pressure on labor markets and consumer demand could eventually weigh on freight activity.
emphasis added

U.S. rail intermodal shipments rebounded in July, rising 2.4% over last year and reversing a 2.9% decline in June (intermodal’s first year-over-year decline in 22 months). In July 2025, intermodal originations averaged 270,175 units per week, the second most ever for July (behind July 2018).

Meanwhile, U.S. total carloads rose 4.6% in July 2025 over July 2024, their fifth straight increase. In July, 15 of the 20 carload categories tracked by the AAR saw gains, the most since December 2023. Total carloads averaged 224,568 per week in July 2025, the most for July since 2019. In 2025 through July, total carloads were up 2.8%, or nearly 186,000 carloads, over last year.