by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 10:50:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY

Excerpt:

Sales in May (4.03 million SAAR) were up 0.8% from the previous month and were 0.7% below the May 2024 sales rate. This was the 4th consecutive month with a year-over-year decline in sales. ... The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but right at housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales decreased 0.7% year-over-year compared to May 2024.  This was the 4th consecutive month with a year-over-year decline.  The next four months will have the easiest year-over-year comparisons.
...
On an NSA basis for the month of May, this was 3% above the low for housing bust for the month of May that happened in May 2009. Year-to-date, sales are down 2.8% NSA.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.8% Increase in May

Existing-home sales rose in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales elevated in the Northeast, Midwest and South, but retreated in the West. Year-over-year, sales progressed in the Northeast and Midwest but contracted in the South and West. ...

• 0.8% increase in total existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million.

• 0.7% decrease year-over-year, sales declined 0.7% (down from 4.06 million in May 2024).

• 1.54 million units: Total housing inventory, up 6.2% from April and 20.3% from May 2024 (1.28 million).

• 4.6-month supply of unsold inventory, up from 4.4 months in April and 3.8 months in May 2024.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in May (4.03 million SAAR) were up 0.8% from the previous month and were 0.7% below the May 2024 sales rate.  This was the 4th consecutive month with a year--over-year decline in sales. 

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.54 million in May from 1.45 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 20.3% year-over-year (blue) in May compared to May 2024.

Months of supply (red) increased to 4.6 months in May from 4.4 months the previous month.

As expected, the sales rate was above the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 32.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.  

Usually, inventory is up about 18% to 19% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 30.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 33.1%), and down 13.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 12.4%). 

This is the highest level since 2019.

It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of June 20th, inventory was at 829 thousand (7-day average), compared to 826 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2025 06:15:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 22, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for May from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.95 million SAAR, down from 4.00 million in April.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 35 and DOW futures are down 221 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $76.96 per barrel and Brent at $80.28 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $82, and Brent was at $86 - so WTI oil prices are down about 6% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.19 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.41 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.22 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2025 08:48:00 AM

This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

On June 20, 2025, LBR was at $616.00 per 1,000 board feet, up 36% from a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.

Note that last year prices bottomed in early July at $449.00 per 1,000 board feet, so the next few weeks will be the most difficult year-over-year comparison.

The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  

by Calculated Risk on 6/21/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May

• California Home Sales "Sputter" in May; 4th Look at Local Markets

• Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 6/21/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are May New and Existing Home sales, the third estimate of Q1 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for May and the April Case-Shiller house price index.

For manufacturing, the June Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

Fed Chair Powell testifies on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

----- Monday, June 23rd -----
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for May from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.95 million SAAR, down from 4.00 million in April.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.03 million SAAR.

----- Tuesday, June 24th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 3.4% year-over-year in March.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for May 2024.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee

----- Wednesday, June 25th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 710 thousand SAAR, down from 743 thousand in April.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

----- Thursday, June 26th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 247 thousand from 245 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 0.2% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the second estimate of a 0.2% decrease.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 4.5% increase in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in this index.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for June. 

During the Day: Census Bureau releases the Vintage 2024 Population Estimates

----- Friday, June 27th -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.5% YoY.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June).

4:30 PM: Federal Reserve Board announces results from its annual bank stress test

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

This will be the last weekly COVID update for now, although I'll start posting again if COVID increases significantly.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	181✅	211	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2024 (previous pandemic low of 314 deaths), I continued to post since COVID deaths increased last summer.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of June 18th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This is close to the lows of May 2024.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 11:45:00 AM

There will be some trade related distortions in Q2.

From BofA:

Overall, 2Q GDP tracking is down from 2.7% q/q saar to 2.6%. [June 17th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +4.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales estimate by the same amount to +0.1%. [June 18th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.4 percent on June 18, down from 3.5 percent on June 17. [June 18th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 08:44:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales "Sputter" in May; 4th Look at Local Markets

A brief excerpt:

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California housing market sputters for third straight month in May as home sales and prices pull back, C.A.R. reports

May’s sales pace fell 5.1 percent from the 267,710 homes sold in April and was down 4.0 percent from a year ago, when 264,850 homes were sold on an annualized basis. May’s sales level was the lowest in four months. The year-over-year decline was the largest since December 2023 ...

In May, sales in these markets were down 3.7% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were down 3.4% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be higher than for the NSA data.
...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.