RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2025 08:11:00 AM
Wednesday, October 08, 2025
The Long and Winding Road
Note: CR is on vacation until Oct 21st.
This is the 21st year I've been writing this blog!
And on housing, over seven years ago, in January 2018, I was quoted in a Bloomberg article:And in December 2018, I disagreed with Professor Shiller A comment on Professor Shiller's "The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?". My conclusion:
Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing - and in early 2007, I predicted a recession.
However in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February 2009, I wrote: Looking for the Sun (Note: that post shocked many readers since I had been very bearish).
A few years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, I called the bottom for housing: The Housing Bottom is Here
However in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February 2009, I wrote: Looking for the Sun (Note: that post shocked many readers since I had been very bearish).
A few years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, I called the bottom for housing: The Housing Bottom is Here
Then I spent a number of years arguing against the recession callers, and the new housing bubble calls. A few examples:
In 2015, I wrote The Endless Parade of Recession Calls
For the last 6+ years, there have been an endless parade of incorrect recession calls. The most reported was probably the multiple recession calls from ECRI in 2011 and 2012.And I updated that post several times.
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I disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!
And on housing, over seven years ago, in January 2018, I was quoted in a Bloomberg article:
Bill McBride, who runs the Calculated Risk blog and also called the crash, doesn’t think home prices are inflated this time around. Unlike in 2005, lenders are acting responsibly and the Wild West of real estate speculation hasn’t returned, he said. There is less to speculate on, too. Compared with the overbuilding that preceded the bust, today’s pace of construction isn’t fast enough, he said.
“Lending standards are still pretty good,” McBride said, and he doesn’t expect mortgage rates to “take off” in the short term.
No big deal, and definitely not a "gigantic" boom in house prices.In 2021, I wrote: Is there a New Housing Bubble?
The lack of wild speculation doesn't mean house prices can't decline, but it means that we won't see cascading declines in prices like what happened when the housing bubble burst.Also in 2021, I started my real estate newsletter.
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From a historical perspective, house prices are high. But lending standards have been solid, and we haven't seen significant speculation - so I wouldn't call this a bubble.
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A few key articles:
Stay tuned!
