by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2025 08:49:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 3.8% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through June 2025.

Services were up 3.8% YoY as of June 2025, up from 3.7% YoY in May.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.8% YoY in June, up from 3.5% YoY in April.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were up 0.6% YoY as of June 2025, up from unchanged YoY in May.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.6% YoY in June, up from 0.3% YoY in May.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through June) and housing from the PCE report (through May)

Shelter was up 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 3.9% in May. Housing (PCE) was up 4.1% YoY in June, down from 4.2% in May.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.1% YoY in June, up from 1.9% in May.

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