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Wednesday, July 10, 2024

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2024 02:11:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Gained 10% in June

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 10.4% in June to 198.6 (2000=100) from the revised May reading of 179.9. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.5% and institutional planning ticked up 0.2%.

“Data centers continued to dominate planning projects in June – fueling another strong month for commercial planning,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “More momentum in planning, while not as strong as data centers, was seen across most segments and indicates confidence in 2025 market conditions. The DMI is up 43% from June 2019 levels, signaling strong construction spending in 2025.”

Data center planning continued to be the primary driver of commercial growth in June, alongside moderate growth in retail, hotels and warehouse projects. On the institutional side, weaker healthcare planning was offset by an improvement in education activity. Additionally, a large detention facility entered the queue last month and bolstered public planning as well.

In June, the DMI was 7% higher than in June of 2023. The commercial segment was up 25% from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was down 25% over the same period.
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 198.6 in June, up from 1179.9 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a slowdown in 2024 and early 2025, but perhaps a pickup in mid-2025..  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.