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Tuesday, June 11, 2024

CPI Previews

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2024 02:15:00 PM

The key economic report this week is May CPI to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 3.4% YoY unchanged from April), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.5% YoY, down from 3.6% YoY in April).

From BofA:

After averaging 0.4% m/m in January through March, inflation took a small step in the right direction in April with core Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation (PCE) both decelerating to 0.3% m/m (core PCE inflation was 0.26% rounded to two decimals).

We think May follows suit and our forecast is for core and headline CPI inflation rising by 0.3% (0.30% to two decimals) and 0.1% m/m. This would leave core and headline up 3.6% and 3.4% y/y, respectively, both unchanged from April levels.
From Goldman:
We expect a 0.25% increase in May core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.50% (vs. 3.5% consensus). We expect a 0.11% increase in May headline CPI (vs. 0.1% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.36% (vs. 3.4% consensus). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.20% increase in CPI core services excluding rent and owners’ equivalent rent and with a 0.19% increase in core PCE in May.