In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.14 million SAAR in April

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2024 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Retreated 1.9% in April

Existing-home sales receded in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions posted month-over-month declines. Year-over-year, sales decreased in the Northeast, Midwest and South but increased in the West.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slid 1.9% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.14 million in April. Year-over-year, sales fell 1.9% (down from 4.22 million in April 2023).
Total housing inventory registered at the end of April was 1.21 million units, up 9% from March and 16.3% from one year ago (1.04 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.2 months in March and 3.0 months in April 2023.
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in April (4.14 million SAAR) were down 1.9% from the previous month and were 1.9% below the April 2023 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.21 million in April from 1.11 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was up 16.3% year-over-year (blue) in April compared to April 2023.

Months of supply (red) increased to 3.5 months in April from 3.2 months the previous month.

This was below the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later.