by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2024 11:25:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April and a Look Ahead to May Sales

A brief excerpt:

In April, sales in these markets were up 7.6% YoY. In March, these same markets were down 10.0% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Sales in most of these markets are down compared to January 2019. Sales in Grand Rapids and Nashville are up compared to 2019.

This is a year-over-year increase NSA for these markets. However, there were two more working days in April 2024 compared to April 2023, so sales Seasonally Adjusted were lower year-over-year than Not Seasonally Adjusted sales.

This was a 7.6% year-over-year decrease NSA for these markets. This is about the same as the 6.8% decline NSA reported by the NAR.

May sales will be mostly for contracts signed in March and April and mortgage rates increased slightly to an average of 6.99% in April. My early expectation is we will see a sales decrease in May on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) compared to April.

Note for next month (May sales): There were the same number of working days in May 2024 compared to May 2023, so the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted sales will be about the same as the NSA data suggests.

There is much more in the article.