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Tuesday, May 14, 2024

CPI Previews

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2024 08:21:00 AM

CPI for April will be released on Wednesday. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI (up 3.4% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.6% YoY). Here are a couple of analyst's forecasts.

From BofA:

For the April CPI report, we forecast headline CPI rose by 0.3% m/m. Based on our forecast, the y/y rate should tick down to 3.4%. The main factor behind our expectation for a relatively firmer headline CPI print is energy prices. Meanwhile, we expect core inflation to also print at 0.3% m/m. This would be a noticeable moderation from the 0.37% m/m 1Q average.
From Goldman:
We expect a 0.28% increase in April core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.61% (vs. 3.6% consensus). We expect a 0.37% increase in April headline CPI (vs. 0.4% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.42% (vs. 3.4% consensus). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.19% increase in CPI core services excluding rent and owners’ equivalent rent and with a 0.22% increase in core PCE in April. ... Going forward, we expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.25-0.30% range for the next few months before slowing to around 0.2% by end-2024.