In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Tuesday, April 09, 2024

CPI Preview

by Calculated Risk on 4/09/2024 03:50:00 PM

Currently CPI is a significant market mover, especially for mortgage rates. Here are two previews on the report tomorrow.

From BofA:

After two firm reports to start the year, core CPI inflation should cool off in March. We expect core CPI inflation to round down to 0.2% m/m (0.24% unrounded) owing to a slight decline in core goods prices and less price pressure from core services. Meanwhile, headline CPI should round up to 0.3% m/m (0.25% unrounded). If our forecast proves correct, it should provide some confidence to the Fed.
From Goldman:
We expect a 0.27% increase in March core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.70% (vs. 3.7% consensus). We expect a 0.29% increase in March headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.37% (vs. 3.4% consensus).