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Friday, March 01, 2024

GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range

by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2024 02:40:00 PM

From BofA:

This week, we align our 1Q GDP tracking with to our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. We still expect consumption growth to slow due to the negative impact from seasonal factors and extreme weather in January. But we have made upward revisions to the non-conconsumer sectors of the economy. [Mar 1st estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.2% (qoq ar) and our Q1 domestic final sales forecast by 0.1pp to +2.5% (qoq ar), mainly reflecting weaker-than-expected residential construction spending. [Mar 1st estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on March 1, down from 3.0 percent on February 29. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.0 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent. [March 1st estimate]