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Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Q4 GDP Growth Revised Down to 3.2% Annual Rate

by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2024 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Second Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to private inventory investment that was partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and consumer spending (refer to "Updates to GDP").

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
emphasis added
Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 2.8% to 3.0%. Residential investment was revised up from 1.1% to 2.9%.