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Sunday, February 25, 2024

February Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.5 million SAAR, Up 4% YoY

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2024 08:21:00 AM

From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Rebound from January's Slide (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

Sales are bouncing back in February, thanks mostly to a surge in estimated fleet volume, while the retail sector posts tepid growth. Higher interest rates, negative aspects of the inventory mix and lack of fresh product are keeping demand from being even stronger. One take away from February is that the month’s results will be more proof seasonal trends in the U.S. are resuming pre-2020 norms, which also means sales should strengthen again in March.
emphasis added
Vehicle Sales ForecastClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for February (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.5 million SAAR, would be up 3.3% from last month, and up 4.2% from a year ago.