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Tuesday, December 12, 2023

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2023 09:21:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned earlier when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year.  This declined sharply and is now up 3.5% YoY.

Services ex-ShelterClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through November 2023.

Services were up 5.2% YoY as of November 2023, up from 5.1% YoY in October.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% YoY in November, up from 3.0% YoY in October.

Goods CPIThe second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.6% YoY as of November 2023, up from -2.1% YoY in October.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were unchanged YoY in November, unchanged from 0.0% YoY in October.

Goods inflation was transitory.

ShelterHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through November) and housing from the PCE report (through October 2023)

Shelter was up 6.5% year-over-year in November, down from 6.7% in October. Housing (PCE) was up 6.9% YoY in October, down from 7.2% in September.

The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter continued to rise in November"

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.1% YoY in November, up from 2.0% in October.