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Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.8% year-over-year in October

by Calculated Risk on 12/26/2023 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Accelerates in October

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.8% annual change in October, up from a 4% change in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 5.7%, up from a 4.8% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, up from a 3.9% increase in the previous month. Detroit reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.1% increase in October, followed again by San Diego with a 7.2% increase. Portland fell 0.6% and remained the only city reporting lower prices in October versus a year ago.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite, posted 0.2% month-over-month increases in October, while the 20-City composite posted 0.1% increase.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 10-City and 20-City Composites each posted month-over-month increases of 0.6%.

"U.S. home prices accelerated at their fastest annual rate of the year in October”, says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital assets at S&P DJI. Our National Composite rose by 0.2% in October, marking nine consecutive monthly gains and the strongest national growth rate since 2022.”

“Detroit kept pace as the fastest growing market for the second month in a row, registering an 8.1% annual gain. San Diego maintained the second spot with 7.2% annual gains, following by New York with a 7.1% gain. We are experiencing broad based home price appreciation across the country, with steady gains seen in nineteen of twenty cities. This month’s report reflects trendline growth compared to historical returns and little disparity among cities and regions.”

“Each of our 10-city, 20-city and National Index, remain at all-time highs, with 8 of 20 cities registering all-time highs (Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Charlotte, New York and Cleveland). While Portland remains slightly down compared to last year’s gains, Phoenix and Las Vegas have flipped to year over year gains. The Midwest and the Northeast region are fastest growing markets, while the Southwest and West regions have lagged other regions for over a year. A solid, if unspectacular report, this month’s index reflects a rising tide across nearly all markets.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 0.6% in October (SA) and is at a new all-time high.

The Composite 20 index is up 0.6% (SA) in October and is also at a new all-time high.

The National index is up 0.6% (SA) in October and is also at a new all-time high.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 5.7% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 4.9% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 4.8% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.