In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Friday, December 08, 2023

AAR: November Carloads Down Slightly YoY; Intermodal Up

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2023 04:30:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

In the first 11 months of 2023, total carloads were 10.82 million, up 0.2% (21,700 carloads) over last year and up 0.5% (53,682 carloads) over 2021. ... In 2023 through November, intermodal originations totaled 11.68 million, down 6.0% (748,046 units) from 2022 and down 10.6% (1.39 million units) from 2021.
emphasis added
Rail Traffic Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2023:
Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads fell 0.01%, or 102 carloads, in November 2023 from the equivalent period in 2022. It was the fifth year-over-year decline for total carloads in the past six months, but most of those declines have been very small in percentage terms. Total carloads averaged 225,715 per week in November 2023, the fourth lowest of the 11 months so far this year. The Thanksgiving holiday typically holds down rail volumes in November.
Rail TrafficThe second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers):
U.S. intermodal volume was up 5.0% in November 2023, its third straight year-over-year gain after 18 straight declines and the biggest year-over-year percentage gain for intermodal in 29 months. U.S. railroads averaged 255,981 originated containers and trailers per week in November 2023. That’s the fourth highest average intermodal volume for November on record (2017, 2018, and 2020 were higher).