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Friday, November 03, 2023

October Employment Report: 150 thousand Jobs, 3.9% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2023 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 150 thousand in October.  Private payrolls increased by 99 thousand, and public payrolls increased 51 thousand.

Payrolls for August and September were revised down 101 thousand, combined.

Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October, the year-over-year change was 2.97 million jobs.  Employment was up solidly year-over-year but has slowed to more normal levels of job growth recently.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate was decreased to 62.7% in October, from 62.8% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.2% from 60.4% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate increased to 3.9% in October from 3.8% in September.

This was below consensus expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 101,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...