by Calculated Risk on 10/09/2023 12:02:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October

A brief excerpt:

The NAR reported sales were at a “seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million in August. Year-over-year, sales fell 15.3% (down from 4.77 million in August 2022).” This was in line with the local markets I tracked for August.

The current cycle low for existing home sales was 4.00 million SAAR in January 2023. The early local market reports suggest a new cycle low for closed sales in September!

Usually, house prices bottom after sales bottom, so a new cycle low for sales suggests likely further weakness for house prices in coming months. I’ll have more on this pattern.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/