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Saturday, September 30, 2023

Schedule for Week of October 1, 2023

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2023 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the September ISM Manufacturing and Services indices, September auto sales and the August trade deficit.

----- Monday, October 2nd -----

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 47.8, up from 47.6 in August. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase.

----- Tuesday, October 3rd -----

8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for August.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in July to 8.83 million from 9.17 million in June.

The number of job openings (yellow) were down 22% year-over-year. Quits were down 12% year-over-year.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for September.

The consensus is for sales of 15.4 million SAAR, up from 15.0 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Wednesday, October 4th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 jobs added, down from 177,000 in August.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for September.

----- Thursday, October 5th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 208 thousand initial claims, up from 204 thousand last week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $65.1 billion in August, from $65.0 billion in July.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

----- Friday, October 6th -----

Employment per month8:30 AM: Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 150,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 3.7%.

There were 187,000 jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 3.8%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.