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Saturday, August 26, 2023

Schedule for Week of August 27, 2023

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2023 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the second estimate of Q2 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for July, the August ISM manufacturing index, August auto sales, and Case-Shiller house prices for June.

----- Monday, August 28th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August.

----- Tuesday, August 29th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 1.1% year-over-year decrease in the Comp 20 index for June.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in June to 9.58 million from 9.62 million in May.

The number of job openings (black) were down 13% year-over-year and Quits were down 9% year-over-year.

----- Wednesday, August 30th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2023 (second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the advance estimate of 2.4% in Q2.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for July. The consensus is for a 0.8% decrease in the index.

----- Thursday, August 31st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 235 thousand initial claims, up from 230 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2023. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 3.3% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.2% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August.

----- Friday, September 1st -----

Employment per month8:30 AM: Employment Report for August.   The consensus is for 187,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.5%.

There were 187,000 jobs added in July, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 46.6, up from 46.4 in July.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll Day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.4 million SAAR in August, down from 15.7 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.