by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2023 03:52:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August

A brief excerpt:

On Friday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August I reviewed home inventory and sales.
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Most measures of house prices have shown an increase in prices over the last several months, and a key question is Will house prices decline further later this year?

Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up YoY soon in the Case-Shiller index. The NAR reported median prices were down 0.9% YoY in June, smaller than the 3.0% YoY decline in May. Black Knight reported prices were up 0.8% YoY in June to new all-time highs, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 1.7% YoY in June, up from 0.8% in May.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, it seems likely the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will turn positive this summer.

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