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Friday, August 04, 2023

July Employment Report: 187 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2023 08:42:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July,, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and wholesale trade.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 25,000, from +306,000 to +281,000, and the change for June was revised down by 24,000, from +209,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 49,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 187 thousand in July.  Private payrolls increased by 172 thousand, and public payrolls increased 15 thousand.

Payrolls for May and June were revised down 49 thousand, combined.

Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In July, the year-over-year change was 3.36 million jobs.  Employment was up significantly year-over-year but has slowed to more normal levels of job growth recently.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.6% in July, from 62.6% in June. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.4% from 60.3% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in July to 3.5% from 3.6% in June.

This was slightly below consensus expectations; however, May and June payrolls were revised down by 49,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...