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Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Unchanged year-over-year in June

by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2023 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Positive Momentum Continues in June

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 0.0% annual change in June, up from a loss of -0.4% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite showed a decrease of -0.5%, which is an improvement on the -1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year loss of -1.2%, up from -1.7% in the previous month.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in June, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites also posted like increases of 0.9%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.7%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9%.

“U.S. home prices continued to increase in June 2023,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “Our National Composite rose by 0.9% in June, and it now stands only -0.02% below its alltime peak from exactly one year ago. Our 10- and 20-City Composites likewise each gained 0.9% in June 2023, and stand -0.5% and -1.2%, respectively, below their June 2022 peaks.

“As we’ve noted previously, the recovery in home prices is broadly based. Prices rose in all 20 cities in June, both before and after seasonal adjustment. Over the last 12 months, 10 cities show positive returns. Otherwise said, half the cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices.

“Regional differences continue to be striking. On a year-over-year basis, June’s three best-performing cities were Chicago (+4.2%), Cleveland (+4.1%), and New York (+3.4%) – the same three that had topped our May leader board. At the other end of the scale, the worst performers continue to be in the Pacific and Mountain time zones, with San Francisco (-9.7%) and Seattle (-8.8%) at the bottom. The Midwest (+2.8%) continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed this month by the Northeast (+1.6%). The West (-5.9%) remains the weakest region.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 0.9% in June (SA) and down 0.5% from the recent peak in June 2022.

The Composite 20 index is up 0.9% (SA) in June and down 1.2% from the recent peak in June 2022.

The National index is up 0.7% (SA) in June and is down slightly from the peak in June 2022.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 0.5% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is down 1.2% year-over-year.

The National index SA is unchanged year-over-year.

Annual price changes were slightly above expectations.  I'll have more later.