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Friday, June 09, 2023

Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 1% to 2%

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2023 12:07:00 PM

From BofA:

Overall, the data pushed up our 1Q GDP tracking estimate three-tenths to 1.9% q/q saar and our 2Q GDP tracking moved up a tenth to 1.2%. [June 9th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
[W]e lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.5pp to +1.7% (qoq ar). Our Q2 domestic final sales forecast stands at +2.1%. [June 7th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on June 8, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.9 percent to 8.7 percent. [June 8th estimate]