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Thursday, June 22, 2023

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.30 million SAAR in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2023 10:11:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Edged Higher by 0.2% in May

Existing-home sales marginally increased in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales were mixed among the four major U.S. regions, with the South and West posting improvements and the Northeast and Midwest experiencing pullbacks. All four regions experienced year-over-year sales declines.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 0.2% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.30 million in May. Year-over-year, sales dropped 20.4% (down from 5.40 million in May 2022).
Total housing inventory registered at the end of May was 1.08 million units, up 3.8% from April but down 6.1% from one year ago (1.15 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.9 months in April and 2.6 months in May 2022.
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in May (4.30 million SAAR) were up 0.2% from the previous month and were 20.4% below the May 2022 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home Inventory According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.08 million in May from 1.04 million in April.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was down 6.1% year-over-year (blue) in May compared to May 2022.

Months of supply (red) increased to 3.0 months in May from 2.9 months in April.

This was slightly above the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.