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Thursday, June 22, 2023

June Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.9 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY

by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2023 06:45:00 PM

From WardsAuto: June U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Pegged for 21% Gain; Q2 to Roll in at 2-Year-High 15.7 Million SAAR (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

Deliveries in the second quarter will total 4.1 million units, 18% above like-2022, and stronger than Q1’s 8% gain. First-half 2023 volume will total 7.67 million units, up 13% from January-June 2022’s 6.78 million.
emphasis added
Vehicle Sales ForecastClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for June (Red).

The Wards forecast of 15.9 million SAAR, would be up 5.7% from last month, and up 21.9% from a year ago.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.