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Wednesday, May 10, 2023

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2023 08:51:00 AM

Here a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell has been mentioning.

Services ex-ShelterClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through March 2023.

Services were up 6.8% YoY as of April 2023, down from 7.2% YoY in March.

Services less rent of shelter was up 5.2% YoY in April, down from 6.1% YoY in March.

Will services ex-shelter inflation be persistent, or will it follow a similar pattern as goods?   This is a topic I discussed in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2.

Goods CPIThe second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -0.2% YoY as of April 2023, up from -1.0% YoY in March.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were up 2.1% YoY in April, up from 1.6% YoY in March.

Goods inflation was transitory.

ShelterHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through April) and housing from the PCE report (through March 2023)

Shelter was up 8.1% year-over-year in March, down from 8.2% in March. Housing (PCE) was up 8.3% YoY in March.

The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase ..."