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Friday, May 19, 2023

Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2023 08:41:00 AM

From BofA:

Overall, this week’s data pushed up our 1Q US GDP tracking estimate up from 0.9% q/q saar to 1.1% q/q saar and kicked off our 2Q GDP tracking estimate at 1.2% q/q saar [May 19th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.0% (qoq ar) and our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 unchanged at +1.4%. Our Q2 domestic final sales growth forecast stands at +1.9%. [May 17th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.9 percent on May 17, up from 2.6 percent on May 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -6.3 percent to 0.6 percent. [May 17th estimate]