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Thursday, May 04, 2023

Goldman April Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2023 04:53:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 250k in April (mom sa), above consensus of +182k but a slowdown from the +345k average pace of the last three months. We believe high but falling labor demand more than offset continued layoffs in the information and financial sectors and a roughly 25k hiring drag from reduced credit availability. ... We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5% (vs. consensus 3.6%), reflecting a modest rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation (at 62.6%).
emphasis added