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Friday, April 14, 2023

Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2023 01:40:00 PM

From BofA:

March industrial production was stronger than expected, along with upward revisions to February. Utilities production in March came in higher than expected at 8.4% m/m increasing our personal consumption tracking estimate for 1Q. Mining fell by 0.2% m/m. The components of support activities for mining that feed into our structures estimate were slightly higher than expected, pushing up our structures tracking estimate for 1Q. Business equipment tracking estimate came in lower than expected, thereby lowering our equipment spending tracking estimate for 1Q. Overall, this pushed up our 1Q US GDP tracking estimate from 1.5% q/q saar to 1.6% q/q saar.

However, the weaker inventories data took down our tracking estimate for the change in private inventories. As a result, inventories lowered our tracking estimate two-tenths to 1.4% q/q saar. [Apr 14th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.2% (qoq ar), reflecting stronger consumption but lower inventory investment. Our domestic final sales growth forecast stands at +3.9%. [Apr 14th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on April 14, up from 2.2 percent on April 10. After recent releases the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from -6.5 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, to -5.9 percent and 2.6 percent. [Apr 14th estimate]