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Friday, April 21, 2023

Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2023 01:31:00 PM

The advance estimate of Q1 GDP will be released this coming Thursday, April 27th. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.0% annualized in Q1, down from 2.6% in Q4.

From BofA:

On net, the data lowered our tracking estimate a tenth to 1.5% q/q saar. ... Our tracking estimate for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased from 3.5% q/q saar to 4.0% q/q saar owing to slightly stronger than expected retail sales and a surge in utitilities production. [Apr 21st estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We have left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.2% (qoq ar). Our domestic final sales growth forecast stands at +3.9%. [Apr 20th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on April 18, unchanged from April 14 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -5.8 percent to -5.5 percent. [Apr 18th estimate]