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Monday, April 17, 2023

Lawler on Demographics: New Population Estimates Incorporate Unprecedented Methodological Changes

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2023 11:30:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler on Demographics: New Population Estimates Incorporate Unprecedented Methodological Changes

A brief excerpt:

Demographics are very useful in predicting long term trends for housing and the economy.

The following note from housing economist Tom Lawler discusses the most recent release from the Census Bureau.

Last week Census released its “Vintage 2022” estimates of the US resident population by single year of age, and the estimates incorporated unprecedented methodological changes that, if accurate, significantly changed estimates of the age distributions of the US population from previous “vintage” estimates.

In December Census noted that because of some “issues” with Census 2020, it would create a “blended” base (or decadal starting point) for April 1, 2020 that would incorporate age and sex data from the 2020 Demographic Analysis.  Stated another way, for (I believe) the first time ever the starting point for this decade’s population estimates do NOT reflect the age distribution from the Decennial Census.  Here is an excerpt from its methodology section.
At the national level, then, it is accurate to say that resident, household, and group quarters (GQ) population totals are derived from the 2020 Census, age and sex detail is drawn from 2020 DA, and race and Hispanic origin detail comes from V2020.”
Closed Sales Jan 2023Incorporation of this “blended” base resulted in significant changes in the age distribution of the resident population, as shown in the table below.

As the table shows, while the total population estimates for 4/1/2020 are virtually unchanged, there were sizable changes in population estimates for various age groups.
CR Note: ... This estimated change in the late teens / early 20’s population in 2020 - that Lawler highlighted - is important (if accurate) for multi-family housing.
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