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Thursday, March 23, 2023

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Vehicle Sales to be up Year-over-year in March

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2023 04:02:00 PM

From WardsAuto: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales, Inventory Pegged for Solid Gains; First-Quarter Deliveries to Rise 7% (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

Though gradually improving, inventory remains the story behind why sales remain low by historical standards. There are underlying crosscurrents related to the economy, rising interest rates and geopolitics, among others, that are helping stanch demand, but lack of inventory is the main reason growth is not significantly stronger (and even largely why prices are stuck at elevated levels - though that headwind is lessening as inventory rises).
emphasis added
Vehicle Sales ForecastClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for March (Red).

The Wards forecast of 14.4 million SAAR, would be down 3% from last month, and up 6.2% from a year ago.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales have been more suppressed by supply chain issues but have picked up recently.