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Friday, March 31, 2023

Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2023 12:29:00 PM

From BofA:

Personal income rose by a larger-than-expected 0.3% m/m in February, after a 0.6% m/m print in January. Personal spending rose by 0.2% m/m in nominal terms with sizeable upward revisions to January, both in nominal and real terms. This increased our 1Q PCE tracking estimate. Overall, today's personal income and outlays print pushed up our 1Q US GDP tracking estimate from 0.8% q/q saar to 1.5% q/q saar. [Mar 31st estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
The February core PCE price index rose by 0.30% month-over-month, below consensus expectations, and the year-over-year rate decreased to 4.60%. ... The spending details of this morning’s data were firmer than our previous assumptions, and we boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.4% (qoq ar). [Mar 31st estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on March 31, down from 3.2 percent on March 24. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 5.0 percent, -7.0 percent, and 1.8 percent, respectively, to 4.6 percent, -7.3 percent, and 1.7 percent. [Mar 31st estimate]