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Thursday, March 30, 2023

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.6% Below Peak

by Calculated Risk on 3/30/2023 09:45:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.6% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.9% below recent peak


It has been 17 years since the bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 60% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is at the bubble peak.

These inflation adjusted indexes have been declining for eight months in real terms.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be almost $340,000 today adjusted for inflation (70% increase).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index.
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