by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2023 08:34:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory might have bottomed seasonally two weeks ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of March 24th, inventory was at 413 thousand (7-day average), compared to 414 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is down 15.8%, and up 0.2% from the possible seasonal bottom two weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 64.3% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 68.6%), and down 50.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 49.7%). 

A key will be when inventory starts increasing in 2023 - and this might be the start of the usual summer increase in inventory.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.