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Monday, March 20, 2023

Goldman Expects the FOMC to Pause

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2023 08:40:00 AM

Yesterday I wrote: FOMC Preview: Uncertainty, Likely 25bp Hike, Maybe Pause

This morning Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle wrote: March FOMC Preview: Pause

We expect the FOMC to pause at its March meeting this week because of stress in the banking system. ... This would mean taking a pause in the inflation fight, but that should not be such a problem. ...The inflation problem actually looks less urgent now than last summer because near-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply and long-term inflation expectations have remained anchored.
The economic projections will likely show somewhat higher GDP growth in 2023, a lower unemployment rate in 2023, and small upward revisions to the inflation numbers. ... We have left our Fed forecast unchanged beyond March and continue to expect three additional 25bp rate hikes in May, June, and July, which would raise the funds rate to a peak of 5.25-5.5%.
emphasis added