by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2023 10:53:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declines for 7th Consecutive Month in January

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) declined for the seventh consecutive month on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, putting the National FMHPI down 2.7% from its June 2022 peak, and down 5.3% Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) from the peak.

On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.4% in January, down from 4.4% YoY in December.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021.

In January, 37 states and D.C. were below their 2022 peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Idaho (-9.6%), Arizona (-8.3%), D.C. (-7.3%), Washington (-7.2%), Nevada (-7.2%), California (-6.6%), Utah (-6.5%), and Colorado (-5.8%).
...
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller, and based on the recent trend, the FMHPI will be negative year-over-year in March (reported at the end of April) - and Case-Shiller will follow soon after.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/