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Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Comments on January Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2023 09:56:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Declining Trend Continued" to 3.8% year-over-year increase in January


Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for January were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for "January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices. November closing prices include some contracts signed in September, so there is a significant lag to this data.

Case-Shiller MoM House PricesThe MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.25%. This was the seventh consecutive MoM decrease, and a slightly smaller decrease than in December.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices declined in 15 of 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis. The largest monthly declines seasonally adjusted were in Seattle (-1.5%), Las Vegas (-1.1%), and Denver (-1.0%). Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 13.2% from the peak in May 2022 and Seattle is down 11.4% from the peak. All 20 cities have seen price declines from the recent peak (SA).
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