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Sunday, February 12, 2023

Weather Boosted Employment by About 125,000 in January

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2023 08:11:00 AM

Just some interesting data: 

The BLS reported 251 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for January over the previous 10 years was 273 thousand (median 247 thousand), so close to normal.

The BLS also reported 382 thousand people that are usually full-time employees were working part time in January due to bad weather.  The average for January over the previous 10 years was 831 thousand (median was 645 thousand).  This series suggests weather positively impacted employment more than usual (boosting seasonally adjusted employment).

The San Francisco Fed estimates Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment. For January, the BLS reported 517 thousand jobs added, the San Francisco Fed estimated that weather boosted employment by around 125 thousand.

So, we should expect some negative payback in coming months.