In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.7% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.6% in January

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2023 04:20:00 PM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.7% in January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in January. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 7.1%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 6.6%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 5.6%. Core PCE is for December and increased 4.4% year-over-year.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. "Fuel oil and other fuels" decreased at a 38% annualized rate in January, and "Used Cars" decreased at a 21% annualized rate.

Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up an average of close to 8.5% annualized. This data is lagged, and rents have been declining in recent months (due to the sharp slowdown in household formation).   To reflect this, I've added core CPI ex-shelter, and that has declined to 3.8% YoY.