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Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Decline Continued" to 5.8% year-over-year increase in December

by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2023 09:10:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Decline Continued in December

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in December, down from 7.6% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 4.4%, down from 6.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 4.6% year-over-year gain, down from 6.8% in the previous month.

Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in December. Miami led the way with a 15.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 13.9% increase, and Atlanta in third with a 10.4% increase. All 20 cities reported lower prices in the year ending December 2022 versus the year ending November 2022.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.8% month-over-month decrease in December, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.8% and -0.9%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.4% and -0.5%, respectively.

In December, all 20 cities reported declines both before and after seasonal adjustments.

“The cooling in home prices that began in June 2022 continued through year end, as December marked the sixth consecutive month of declines for our National Composite Index,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite declined by -0.8% in December, and now stands 4.4% below its June peak. For 2022 as a whole, the National Composite rose by 5.8%, the 15th best performance in our 35-year history, although obviously well below 2021’s record-setting 18.9% gain. We could record similar observations in the 10- and 20-City Composites.

“Prices fell in all 20 cities in December, with a median decline of -1.1%. Moreover, for all 20 cities, year-over-year gains in December (median 4.4%) were lower than those of November (median 6.4%). We noted last month that home prices in San Francisco had fallen on a year-over-year basis. San Francisco’s decline worsened in December (-4.2% year-over-year); its west coast neighbors Seattle (- 1.8%) and Portland (+1.1%) once again form the bottom of the league table.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is down 0.4% in December (SA) and down 4.3% from the recent peak in June 2022.

The Composite 20 index is down 0.5% (SA) in December and down 4.4% from the recent peak in June 2022.

The National index is down 0.3% (SA) in December and is down 2.7% from the peak in June 2022.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.4% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 4.7% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 5.8% year-over-year.

Annual price increases were lower than  expected.  I'll have more later.