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Sunday, January 22, 2023

The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices

by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2023 09:24:00 AM

Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on December existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in December, I mentioned that the median price was down more than normal seasonally.

Below is a table of the seasonal pattern over the last several years.

Seasonally prices typically peak in June (closed sales for contracts signed mostly in April and May).

And seasonally prices usually bottom the following January (contracts signed in November and December). I've included the decline from the peak for December for each year to compare to 2022.

Peak MonthJuneJuneOctJuneJune

In 2020, prices increased late into the year and only decline slightly seasonally (the start of the pandemic buying boom), and in 2021, median prices only declined about 3% from peak to bottom.

But the decline this year, 11.3% so far, is larger than in the pre-pandemic years. And we will probably see a further decline in January and maybe in February - putting median prices down year-over-year soon.