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Friday, January 20, 2023

Q4 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2s

by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2023 12:47:00 PM

The preliminary estimate for Q4 real GDP growth will be released this coming Thursday, January 26th. The consensus estimate is for QoQ annualized real GDP growth of 2.6% in Q4.

From BofA:

Overall the data left our 4Q US GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar, as the stronger contribution to growth from net trade in the tracking estimate offset the five-tenths decline in our tracking estimate for personal consumption. [Jan 20th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.6% (qoq ar). [Jan 10th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 remains 3.5 percent on January 20. The nowcast was unchanged after rounding following this morning's report from the National Association of Realtors. [Jan 20th estimate]