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Thursday, January 26, 2023

New Home Sales at 616,000 Annual Rate in December; Annual Sales down 16.4% in 2022

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2023 10:09:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 616 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down sharply.

Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.3 percent above the revised November rate of 602,000, but is 26.6 percent below the December 2021 estimate of 839,000.

An estimated 644,000 new homes were sold in 2022. This is 16.4 percent below the 2021 figure of 771,000.
emphasis added
New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThe months of supply decreased in December to 9.0 months from 9.2 months in November.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 461,000. This represents a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales rate."
New Home Sales, NSAThe last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In December 2022 (red column), 47 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in November.

The all-time high for December was 87 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for December was 23 thousand in 2010.

This was at expectations of 614 thousand SAAR, however sales in the three previous months were revised down sharply. I'll have more later today.