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Wednesday, December 21, 2022

The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices

by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2022 12:39:00 PM

Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on Existing-Home Sales for November, I mentioned that the median price was down more than normal seasonally.

Median Price SeasonalHere is a table of the seasonal pattern over the last several years.

Seasonally prices typically peak in June (closed sales for contracts signed mostly in April and May).

And seasonally prices bottom in January (contracts signed in November and December).   I've included the decline from the peak for November for each year to compare to this year.

In 2020 and 2021, median prices only declined about 3% from peak to bottom.

But the decline this year, 10.4% so far, is much larger than in the pre-pandemic years.  And we will probably see further declines in December and January - putting median prices down year-over-year in January.