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Friday, December 02, 2022

November Employment Report: 263 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2022 08:44:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 46,000, from +315,000 to +269,000, and the change for October was revised up by 23,000, from +261,000 to +284,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 23,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.

However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.044 million above pre-pandemic levels. I'll post this graph through the January 2023 report (includes the annual revision).

Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In November, the year-over-year change was 4.90 million jobs.  Employment was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 263 thousand in November.  Private payrolls increased by 221 thousand, and public payrolls increased 42 thousand.

Payrolls for September and October were revised down 23 thousand, combined.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.1% in November, from 62.2% in October. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 59.9% from 60.0% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was unchanged in November at 3.7% from 3.7% in October.

This was above consensus expectations; however, September and October payrolls were revised down by 23,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...