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Friday, December 09, 2022

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/09/2022 09:21:00 AM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Advances In November

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 3.8% (2000=100) in November to 207.2 from the revised October reading of 199.6. During the month, the DMI continued its steady ascent, with the commercial component rising 4.3%, and the institutional component ticking up 2.7%.

Commercial planning experienced a healthy increase in hotel and data center projects and modest growth in stores and office projects. While education and healthcare projects slowed in November, the institutional component remained net-positive alongside a robust increase in planning projects for government administrative buildings and religious facilities. On a year-over-year basis, the DMI was 25% higher than in November 2021, the commercial component was up 28%, and institutional planning was 21% higher.
“The Momentum Index continued to rise in November, conveying hopefulness from owners and developers that the construction sector will endure the possible economic slowdown next year,” said Sarah Martin, senior economist for Dodge Construction Network. “The rate of increase in the DMI, however, has steadied over the month. Labor and supply shortages, high material costs and high interest rates could temper planning activity over the next 12 months to a more modest pace.”

The DMI is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 207.2 in November, up from 199.7 in October.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a solid pickup in commercial real estate construction into 2023.